I pulled the file from the Current Employment Statistics program. Vendor copy promises a candidate's market, but who profits from that spin? Recruiters do. The official July release shows average hourly earnings cooled to a 3.2 percent year-over-year gain, proving employers are hoarding the cash. This is an aggregate paycheck, not a raise you can spend yet.

Line chart: Hourly pay is up 3.2 percent, and slowing counts (July 2026 data)
Source: official public data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (weekly layoff claims from the Employment and Training Administration). Chart drawn by the PorkiMail data desk.

Key takeaways

  • The timeline covers 60 months: The dark red line fell from 4.4 in August 2021 to 3.2 percent, erasing easy premiums.
  • The peak is long gone: The series hit a high of 5.9 percent in March 2022, confirming your pandemic-era leverage has evaporated.
  • The trend points down: Over four readings, the line dropped from 3.6 to a 3.2 percent low, signaling weaker demand.

What the terms mean

  • the Current Employment Statistics program: The government survey of business establishments providing these payroll numbers.
  • Average hourly earnings: A gross measure of worker pay before benefits, maintained in a public federal database.
  • Year over year: A comparison to the same month last year, via the official dashboard, removes seasonal noise.

What to watch next

Cooling year-over-year pay with a flat workweek is a strict demand signal, not a lifestyle essay on remote work.